By John Shinn
No matter what happens Jan. 8, 2009, at Dolphin Stadium in Miami, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford will have a tough decision to make. He'll have to decide by Jan. 15, 2009, whether to forgo his final two seasons of eligibility and enter the NFL draft or stay for at least another year.
Bradford's answer will be the kind of cliffhanger a network television producer could only dream about.
"At this point, I haven't put enough effort into that decision to give you an answer," Bradford said.
His decision will have a huge impact on OU's future and the redshirt sophomore isn't taking it lightly. He's already decided to put OU's coaches, particularly quarterbacks coach Josh Heupel, in charge of finding out what exactly his stock is.
No one doubts Bradford's will be extremely high.
Scouts Inc., which does ESPN's analysis for potential NFL draftees, has Bradford as the No. 2 overall prospect and best quarterback if he decides to come out.
It the analysis holds true, that would mean big money for Bradford.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, who was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2008 draft, signed a six-year $72 million deal that included $34 million in guarantees. That kind of money is hard for anyone to turn down, especially if there's no guarantee it will still be there in another year.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is on record saying he would like to rein in the salaries of high draft picks and free up more money for veteran players who have proven themselves. But he also said today the salary structure won't change until at least 2011.
That won't stop agents from telling players the time to leave is now.
OU coach Bob Stoops does his best to keep the information limited to what NFL teams are thinking.
"I think our guys are more educated and wiser to what the possibilities are," Stoops said.
But it doesn't take an NFL advisory board or a general manager to tell a quarterback the more time he spends in college the better. History has proven it.
There's been 29 quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL draft since 1998. Only five have been underclassmen. None are playing at or have reached their expected potential.
· In 1998, Ryan Leaf left Washington State after his junior year and was drafted No. 2 overall by San Diego. His four-year career is widely considered one of the biggest flops in NFL history.
· Tim Crouch exited Kentucky after his junior season and was taken No. 1 overall by Cleveland in 1999. He was inconsistent throughout five seasons with the Browns. He eventually wound up playing in the CFL and is now out of football.
· In 2001, Michael Vick left Virginia Tech after his redshirt sophomore season and was taken No. 1 overall by Atlanta. Vick's career prior to his conviction and imprisonment on dog fighting charges earlier this year was probably the best of the early entrees. He went to the Pro Bowl in 2002, 2003 and 2006.
· Vince Young was the No. 3 overall pick by Tennessee after he left Texas after his junior year. His career started well enough, going to the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2006. However, he lost his starting job this season and the Titans have the best record in the AFC with him on the bench.
· JaMarcus Russell was the last quarterback to leave school and go in the first round. Oakland took the LSU product No. 1 overall in 2007. Russell became the Raiders' starter this season, but he's struggled throwing only 11 touchdown passes this season.
All five were no worse than the No. 3 overall pick. None were willing to risk their stock dropping with another season in college. That's something Bradford must also weigh.
Personnel wise, the Sooners will have a revamped offense next season. They lose five seniors on the offensive line and three seniors at wide receiver, as well as other offensive underclassmen, including tight end Jermaine Gresham, who might go pro.
Stoops has a lot of faith in Bradford making the best possible decision. He's one year away from graduating with a degree in finance and he's carried a 3.9 GPA over the previous three. Getting that degree could also play a factor.
"I think Sam knows that there's more out there that he wants to accomplish. Academically, he's a fabulous student, there's a lot there as well," Stoops said. "He'll be prepared to make a decision when the time comes. There's a lot that goes with that position that sometimes gets overlooked. I think in general, when you look at the pressure at that spot and being that guy you want to be prepared for it."
In the end, it will be up to Bradford to decide if he's ready to make the leap. History says another season in college would bolster his chances for a successful NFL career. But the money is going to be there if he decides to go.
John Shinn
366-3536
jshinn@normantranscript.com
