The Norman Transcript

Headlines

November 21, 2012

Bernanke warns Congress to avoid ‘fiscal cliff’

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday urged Congress and the Obama administration to strike a budget deal to avert tax increases and spending cuts that could trigger a recession next year.

Without a deal, the measures known as the “fiscal cliff” will take effect in January.

Bernanke also said Congress must raise the federal debt limit to prevent the government from defaulting on Treasurys debt. Failure to do so would impose heavy costs on the economy, he said. Bernanke said Congress also needs to reduce the federal debt over the long run to ensure economic growth and stability.

Uncertainty about all these issues is likely holding back spending and investment and troubling investors, the Fed chairman said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York.

Resolving the fiscal crisis would prevent a sudden and severe shock to the economy, help reduce unemployment and strengthen growth, he said. That could make the new year “a very good one for the American economy,” he said.

“A stronger economy will, in turn, reduce the deficit and contribute to achieving long-term fiscal sustainability,” Bernanke told the group.

When asked during a question and answer session after the speech whether the Fed could soften the impact of the fiscal cliff, Bernanke was firm in his warning.

“In the worst-case scenario where the economy goes off the broad fiscal cliff ... I don’t think the Fed has the tools to offset that,” Bernanke said.

Bernanke also said the severity of the Great Recession may have reduced the U.S. economy’s potential growth rate. He didn’t say by how much or how long slower-than-normal growth might persist.

Over the long run, the U.S. economy has grown an average of about 2.5 percent each year. Economists predict growth in the July-September quarter will be revised up to an annual rate of around 3 percent, above the government’s initial 2 percent estimate. But they think the economy is slowing to an annual growth rate below 2 percent in the October-December quarter — too slow to make much of a dent in unemployment.

Bernanke said several factors have weighed on growth: Long-term unemployment has eroded many workers’ skills and led some who have lost jobs to stop looking for one.

Companies have spent less on machinery, computers and other goods, reducing their production capacity. Stricter lending rules and uncertainty about the economy may have discouraged would-be entrepreneurs from starting more companies, the Fed chairman said.

Even assuming the economy’s potential growth has declined, Bernanke said that unemployment, now at 7.9 percent, is abnormally high. He suggested, though, that the drags on economic growth should fade as the economy heals.

By the end of December, just as the fiscal cliff nears, the federal government is expected to hit its borrowing limit. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said he will resort to the same maneuvers he used during the last debt standoff in 2011 to prevent the government from defaulting on its debt.

But these maneuvers would buy only a few weeks’ time, until late February or early March, before the government would face the prospect of a first-ever debt default.

After the last debt standoff in the summer of 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the government’s credit rating on long-term securities one notch from the highest level of AAA to AA+. It was the first ever downgrade of U.S. government debt.

After the presidential election, Fitch Ratings said Obama would need to quickly reach a budget agreement with Congress over the fiscal cliff or risk losing Fitch’s AAA rating on U.S. debt.

It’s unclear what, if anything, the Fed could do to cushion the economy from the fiscal cliff beyond the bond purchases it’s already making to try to lower long-term borrowing rates and stimulate spending.

The minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting suggest that it will likely unveil a bond buying program in December to try to drive down long-term rates. The new purchases would replace a bond-buying program that expires at year’s end.

Most analysts said Bernanke’s comments suggest that is likely.

A new bond buying program would come on top of a program the Fed launched in September to buy $40 billion a month in mortgage bonds to try to reduce long-term interest rates and make home buying more affordable. That program represented the Fed’s third round of major bond purchases to expand its holdings.

Fed officials also announced at the September meeting that they planned to keep the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate near zero through mid-2015. This rate for overnight loans has been at a record low since December 2008.

For local news and more, subscribe to The Norman Transcript Smart Edition, or our print edition.

Text Only | Photo Reprints
Headlines
  • BikeToWorkDay Norman cyclists take the path less traveled to work

    Rain, shine or fog, Norman bicyclists show up every year, and have been showing up every year for eight years, for the city’s annual Bike to Work event. Despite drizzle and fog Friday morning, this year was no exception. “Norman has one ...

    May 18, 2013 1 Photo

  • Fallin urges last-minute health care fix

    OKLAHOMA CITY — Gov. Mary Fallin proposed a last-minute legislative change Friday to the state’s Insure Oklahoma program that would direct $50 million in state tobacco taxes to pay for more than 9,000 people who are expected to lose their ...

    May 18, 2013

  • OU student allegedly changed his grades and faculty members’ passcodes

    Charges were filed against a University of Oklahoma student Thursday after the student allegedly changed faculty members’ passcodes and his own grades on Wednesday. Roja Osman Hamad, 24, was charged in Cleveland County District Court with ...

    May 18, 2013

  • Former student sues OU over school’s refusal to release student parking citation information

    A lawsuit was filed against the University of Oklahoma last week after the university repeatedly refused to release student parking citation information. The lawsuit was specifically filed against David Boren, individually and as the ...

    May 18, 2013

  • Nonprofithealth care centers Variety Care and Health for Friends to merge

    In an effort to serve Cleveland County’s medically under-served residents, Health for Friends, a Norman nonprofit community health center since 1985, is merging with Variety Care, an Oklahoma City-based nonprofit Federally Qualified Health ...

    May 18, 2013

  • Five face drug charges after police search

    Five individuals face drug charges in Cleveland County District Court after Oklahoma City police executed a search warrant for a home in Cleveland County....

    May 18, 2013

  • Ousted IRS chief apologizes

    WASHINGTON — The ousted head of the Internal Revenue Service apologized to Congress on Friday for his agency’s tougher treatment of tea party and other conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status. He said they resulted from a misguided ...

    May 18, 2013

  • Norman residents to perform in concert

    Several Norman residents will perform during Windsong Chamber Choir’s spring concert “Windsong Alone” 4 p.m. Sunday at Messiah Lutheran Church, 3600 NW Expressway in Oklahoma City. The concert is free but donations are accepted....

    May 18, 2013

  • Correction

    Moore-Norman Technology Center superintendent Jane Bowen was appreciative of a $3 million increase to the state’s career tech system budget. It was incorrectly reported Friday that Moore-Norman received the $3 million increase instead of ...

    May 18, 2013

  • Canada abuzz over crack video

    TORONTO — A video purportedly of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford smoking crack has caused an uproar in Canada. Ford on Friday called the allegations “ridiculous.” The video has not been released publicly, and there is no way to verify whether it ...

    May 18, 2013